New Homes Now Cheaper Than Old Ones: How the Federal Reserve Flipped the Housing Market

New homes are now cheaper than existing homes, and it isn't a loophole. On Between The Lies Episode 048, Nicky P, Luke Tatum and Rob Brayton of Perfect Spiral Capital trace the price flip to post-2020 money printing and the Fed's 2022 rate hikes, and explain why a home is a depreciating asset, not real wealth.

For the first time in a long time, the price of a new home has dropped below the price of an existing one. On paper, that sounds like a loophole: skip the 40-year-old house with the aging roof and buy new construction for less. On Episode 048 of Between The Lies, host Nicky P and Perfect Spiral Capital's Luke Tatum and Rob Brayton dig into what's really behind the headline. Their answer runs through the Federal Reserve, the money printed after 2020, and a hard question about whether a home should count as wealth at all.

“Anyone who’s ever owned a home knows it is 100% a depreciating asset that will suck the money out of you left and right, as long as you allow it to.”
— Nicky P, Between The Lies, Episode 048

What We Covered

The National Median Hides Your Local Market

Rob Brayton's first reaction was the same as most people's: maybe it's time to build. Then come the practical questions. Where is the land, and what is the actual price difference in your area? Rob noted that the average gap is roughly $25,000, but it varies widely by market. In some areas it's much larger, in others it doesn't exist. Luke Tatum compared national housing data to a drawer full of tangled cables. A median blends together so many different markets that it rarely tells an individual buyer anything useful. Before a housing headline changes your plans, check whether it's true where you live.

Money Printing Built the Boom

The hosts tie the recent housing cycle directly to the money supply. After 2020, the M2 money supply expanded dramatically, and asset prices followed. Home prices jumped sharply in 2021 and 2022. Luke sold his own house during that window after a single afternoon of showings brought in more offers than he could count. From an Austrian economics perspective, this wasn't homes becoming more valuable. It was each dollar buying less. As Rob put it, assets rise when you dramatically increase the supply of money. Calling it corporate greed misses the mechanism.

“Don’t make the mistake of tying up your entire net worth into an asset that you couldn’t easily get out from under.”
— Luke Tatum, Between The Lies, Episode 048

Rate Hikes Flipped New and Existing Prices

When the Federal Reserve began raising rates in 2022, the market cooled quickly. Rob walked through the timeline: the federal funds rate moved from 1.75% to about 3% early in the third quarter of 2022, then to 4.5% by year's end. The rate of home price growth fell right away. Over the following years, new home prices trended down while existing home prices continued to rise, and eventually the two crossed. Builders have to sell new inventory in a high-rate environment, while many existing owners are locked into older, cheaper mortgages and have little reason to sell. Location matters too. Nicky described how new construction in Cleveland often lands on cheap land in neighborhoods slated for revitalization, which helps explain the lower price.

Recency Bias and the Myth of Permanent Cheap Money

Mortgage rates near 7% feel shocking to anyone who has only bought, or dreamed of buying, in the era of near-zero rates. Luke calls that recency bias: assuming that whatever has happened recently is how things will always be. A glance at the 1970s or 1980s shows rates far higher than today. Nicky added that decades of rates set by political will rather than markets made cheap money feel like a permanent fact of life. It never was.

“Assets beget more assets, especially if you have the correct kind. The type matters, and the access and the liquidity.”
— Luke Tatum, Between The Lies, Episode 048

Key Takeaway

Don't treat your home as your wealth. Nicky argued that a house is a depreciating asset that requires constant upkeep. Its rising paper value mostly reflects inflation, and you can't spend that value without selling and buying another home at similarly inflated prices. Luke summarized it plainly: don't tie up your entire net worth in an asset you can't easily get out from under. If you're not buying or selling, the headline is noise. If you hope to buy someday, the better move is to build assets you can access now, the kind that grow and stay liquid, so you're ready when a life change forces the decision.

Related Episodes

Want a better framework for deciding which assets are worth owning? Get the free toolkit and every episode of Between The Lies at PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast.

“If that truly is my goal, to own a home, what can I do today that helps put me on that path? Just shoving money into a bunch of accounts isn’t necessarily going to get you there.”
— Rob Brayton, Between The Lies, Episode 048

FAQ

Show full transcript

Between The Lies Episode 048 Transcript

A Housing "Loophole"? [0:00]

Nicky P: I was sent a letter, an article on a workaround to the cost of housing. A loophole, if you will. But is the story all it's cracked up to be, or is there more to ponder? Welcome to the Between the Lies podcast, your weekly lesson on how to approach an uncertain world with positivity and balance. I'm Nicky P, here with my good friends and money brains, Luke Tatum and Rob Brayton from Perfect Spiral Capital. They help us navigate the snares and pitfalls in a world of "trust me, bro" economics. Stick around to the end of the video for the free toolkit, and be sure to like and subscribe if you enjoy what we do. Gentlemen, disentangle this for me.

A Drawer Full of Cables: New vs. Existing Home Prices [0:50]

Luke Tatum: Well, all right. So first let me tangle it up a little bit more, and then we can try to pull it back apart. It's like that drawer of electrical cables that you just keep, and you're like, "Okay, I know I've got one of those USB-C to aux cables somewhere," right? And you pull it out, and it's like, "What the hell? Where's the other side of this thing?" Today—

Nicky P: Spoken like a non-musician, for the record. 'Cause I have entire totes of those in multiple locations.

Luke Tatum: I have entire totes of aux cables and all kinds of stuff.

Nicky P: No tiny drawers in this house.

Luke Tatum: Anyway, okay, I'm not gonna get sidebarred by the sidetrack. We are talking about new versus existing home prices. For the first time in a long time, anyway, the price of a new home is lower than the price of an existing home. So you can buy something that's been sitting there, falling apart, needs maintenance, whatever, for 20, 30, 40, 50 years, for less than a new home. So what's the deal with that?

Well, we're gonna get into the nuances. Anytime you see the national median, the national average, the national whatever, that is such a conglomeration, an amalgamation of so much stuff, that of course the nuance is needed to really understand anything useful. It's rarely helpful to say, "Oh, well, the median wage is whatever." Who cares? The wage over here is this, the wage over here is that. So that's what we kind of have to do to disentangle this and sort through our tote full of cables, if you will. We'll talk through the data some more, but we found an interesting correlation in some data points as we were researching for this episode.

Money Printing and the 2021 Housing Boom [2:55]

Luke Tatum: Anybody remember the housing boom after 2020? Anybody remember the spike in house prices in '21 and '22? Anybody?

Rob Brayton: Oh, you mean when assets rise after you dramatically increase the supply of money?

Luke Tatum: Hmm, yeah. Isn't that weird? Isn't that weird how that works?

Rob Brayton: Shocking.

Luke Tatum: Nobody saw this coming.

Nicky P: Don't we have another word for that? What's it called? Oh, inflation. Is that what that is?

Rob Brayton: No, that's only greedy people, Nick.

Luke Tatum: That's right. A sudden meteoric rise in the amount of greed from corporations led to an increase in housing. No, jokes aside. Rob has spoken about this multiple times on the show, but the M2, the total money supply: you look at how much new money was created in response to the quote-unquote "pandemic," and you'll start to see some interesting things as a result of that. It's almost like looking at a chart where you go back and see what happened in 1971. Anybody ever do that? That's a fun exercise, right? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be so cynical. This is a positivity show. Maybe we can put these charts on the screen in post, at least one of them. But Rob, let me kick it to you before we get into all the data and really start to bore people to death. What's your initial take on this? Did you have any gut reaction?

Rob Brayton: Well, for one, I was a little bit surprised. To hear that a new home is cheaper than an existing home, at first glance you're like, "Oh, wow, really? Maybe I should go out and build a house." That's kind of one of the first thoughts. But then you're like, "Well, how easily can I access the land on which to build that house? And what is the difference?" Some of the data I saw was a $25,000 difference to build the new house versus buy the old one. Is that really worth it in some cases? Hard to say.

And the other part of it, which we'll get into in just a moment, is just how drastically different it is by market across the United States. Just to reiterate your point, you can't build everything off of the median or the average. There's so much more to it, because in your area this may or may not be true. In your area, you could actually have a much larger than $25,000 difference with existing homes. It could be $55,000. Some areas are drastically different that way.

But yeah, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense when you think about everything else you do. You go out and buy a vehicle, well, the new one always costs more than the old one. So it doesn't really compute naturally. And I think that's really the difference that we're seeing: whether we want to call them this or not, homes and real estate are assets. Once a home is built and it's been sold once, there really isn't much difference between them. They're all assets in some way, shape, or form. And can they produce income? Yeah, they certainly could in some areas.

Your Home Is a Depreciating Asset [6:50]

Nicky P: I wanna jump in here, 'cause this is a reframe that I personally like to bring up, and it's that we treat homes as if they are not depreciating assets. But anyone who's ever owned a home knows it is 100% a depreciating asset that will suck the money out of you left and right, as long as you allow it to. I won't say only here, but it is a peculiarity, certainly, of the way that we treat our property in our culture, that we treat houses as permanent things, not something that is literally falling apart from the day that it's built.

It feels like, how could it be possible? Not even a little bit of "how could it be possible." There's literally no way it's possible that a new home with new, non-termite-ridden logs and wood is not worth more than a house. The only thing I could think was, man, are they doing something funny with pulling permits, and we're ignoring that kind of stuff? What are we cutting out of the price to make this wizardry seem possible?

Luke Tatum: Right. I mean, there are a lot of factors that go into something like this. You could have a car that is more expensive than other cars because it's got a special engine in it that's extremely valuable or something like that. Obviously newer houses are built from younger trees. Lumber tends to be much less seasoned before it is used in construction now versus 50 years ago. Okay, yes, there are differences. But for a roughly equivalent home, roughly equivalent square footage, roughly equivalent layout, roughly equivalent access to amenities... It's not "oh, well, this is a better school district." Yes, obviously there are a lot of factors that go into real estate prices, location, et cetera. But imagine a neighborhood where you have two houses right next to each other, and one of them was demolished and rebuilt as new construction, while the house next to it was built 40 or 60 years ago. If it's the same house approximately, but one is new and one is old, that would be what's important to understand.

Rob Brayton: Well, and that is one of the things in some of the data points that we were looking at. They're not saying that house A was newly built, house B is 10 years old, and house B automatically sold for more. None of that's happening. You have to understand, when you see these statistics, you have to really think about them a little bit. All it's simply saying is that on average, you can build a home for a little bit less, in some markets, primarily in the South, than if you were to just go buy the house that's already done.

DFW Sprawl vs. Cleveland Revitalization [10:15]

Nicky P: Well, then the first question I'm gonna ask: is it naturally that the only places to build are less desirable places than where the houses already sit? And so of course you can get it a little cheaper, because it's crappy land you're gonna have to build it on, in a neighborhood nobody wants a house in anyway. So yeah, you'll pay a little bit less to buy it new.

Luke Tatum: I mean, that's gonna depend on the region and the market too. My wife and I were talking about this this morning. This happens a lot before we do the show. We'll talk about the topic before we record, at lunch and stuff like that. We're from Texas, the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Well, Dallas-Fort Worth, you just keep expanding. You just keep on going out. The DFW metroplex is gonna get bigger and bigger forever. What now is a separate city is eventually just gonna be, "Oh yeah, that's the north part of Fort Worth." Places that right now are being sold as, "Oh, it's kind of out in the country, but you still have access to the city," that's the allure. It's not gonna be true in 20 or 30 years. "I remember back when this was all farmland, Nick."

Nicky P: Whereas building happens differently here in Cleveland. As a for instance, there are these gorgeous, absolutely gorgeous new construction homes, sometimes fairly large, built in neighborhoods where they'll buy a street. It's usually placed reasonably close to the hospital. And if you know anything about hospitals, they usually end up placed where it was really cheap to pick up land, which is what it was in most of these places with this new construction. If you lived in the city, you'd know: if I go one street over in any direction, I'm in one of the worst neighborhoods in Cleveland, where people are shot every other day. But unless you have that local knowledge... there's a project two streets over, and everything else is teardowns. It's so cheap because they put it in a place where they just wanna tear down the dilapidated housing that's there and replace it with anything. You see a lot of people moving into places, kind of hoping that the rest of that neighborhood gets bulldozed and built into the same kind of housing they bought.

Luke Tatum: Well, and this goes into central planning, and what are we trying to do at the city and local level to reshape the neighborhoods—

Rob Brayton: Gentrification, right?

Luke Tatum: Yeah, exactly.

Nicky P: Here in Cleveland, there's not a lot of outward expansion. Revitalization is literally how they do their housing builds.

Luke Tatum: Right, right. Lauren and I were talking about Chicago earlier, just differences that you might encounter. She's working on a project planning travel to Chicago, so she's looking into the areas of Chicago.

Nicky P: You're not gonna visit me if you're in Chicago?

Luke Tatum: We're not actually going. It's hypothetical travel. We'll talk off air about some other travel plans.

Cheap Money, 2008, and the Rate Hikes [14:05]

Luke Tatum: But the direction I kind of wanted to go with this, guys, not that this is the only direction to go: if you look at the federal funds rate... When money is cheap, when it's real low interest to go get a mortgage, what does that do? It spurs on demand for new houses. You have large projects and huge neighborhoods getting developed, and this is what we have seen. This is how we ended up, partially, in the housing boom and collapse of '08. The Great Recession. What was this? "Well, everybody should own a home." The federal government was trying to encourage homeownership. They make money really, really cheap, really, really easy to qualify for a loan.

Rob Brayton: Yeah. Stated income, stated asset, 580 credit score, right?

Luke Tatum: Yeah. And so we did that. We already did that, and we saw the result of that. And then 2020 arrives. We have easy money come back in. Well, what does that do? It drives up the price of homes. Everybody is just exuberant for homes. People are moving. I did this too. We moved during this time, and I was like, "I can't say no. I could sell my house for so much more than I bought it for just a few years ago." I couldn't not sell my house.

Nicky P: I believe what my landlord at the time said was, "I really wish you were in a place to buy the house, but I can't not take advantage of the prices it's worth right now."

Luke Tatum: Right. It was an absolutely insane time. We spent one day at the mall while our realtor showed the house, and we had so many offers. It was unbelievable. So the new home price and the existing home price were just going up like crazy during this time. Again, maybe we can put visuals up in the show, but new home prices and existing home prices were going up, on a year-over-year number, 15 to 20% in the price of these homes. Crazy. This is Q1 '22, Q2 2022. And then what happens? I don't remember if you have the data pulled up, Rob, but what did we do with interest rates around that time?

Rob Brayton: Yeah. Well, at the end of Q2, we went from 1.75% to 3% at the beginning of Q3, and then it continued to climb to 4.5 by the end of Q4 that year.

Luke Tatum: Right. So, as we all know, economics is a stupid, boring thing, and it doesn't affect anyone's behavior, and you should just not care about it. I'm kidding, obviously. As soon as that happened, Q3 of '22, you have a dramatic decrease in that rate of house prices going up. Q4 '22, it dramatically decreased again. The rate of increase is so much lower, less than 5%. And existing home prices actually fell the next quarter, going into Q1 of '23. Then from Q2 of '23 to now, this is such a cooling effect on that whole market. Basically every quarter except for one, new home prices have been going down, by as much as 5% per quarter. You can only do that so long, right? Existing home prices over the same time, the last three-some years, have been going up. So those things are gonna intersect, and of course, that's exactly what they did.

If you open that chart, look at the federal funds rate, and observe what has happened over the last five years, it's not hard to see why that has happened. That's not to say it's the only factor. We started with other factors. I don't think we need another disclaimer about that. But to sign up for a new mortgage today, you're looking at 7.5%, in that neighborhood. That's really high. But some people thought we'd never see that again. And I've tried to say over the last several years, "You are out of your mind. Of course we are gonna see high interest rates again someday."

Rob Brayton: It didn't feel like it though, right? It felt like it was gonna stay down forever.

Luke Tatum: People would scold me for thinking that interest rates were gonna go up. It's like, yeah, of course they're gonna go up.

Recency Bias and Marcus Aurelius [19:05]

Nicky P: In fairness, our entire adult life, they were low. They were almost non-existent literally our entire lives.

Luke Tatum: I acknowledge this. But it's just so weird, this recency bias thing, where it's like, "Well, because things have been like that recently, I guess they're gonna be that way forever." And I'm not calling you out, Nick, 'cause I know you know more history than 99% of the population of the planet. But if you read some history books, it's not that interest rates have never been low and then gone back up before. You ever looked at the '70s? You ever looked at the '60s? You ever looked at any other time other than now?

Nicky P: But let's be honest, we're talking about normal times, where interest rates actually reflected the market, as opposed to a 30-year political will. For my grandparents and my parents, yes, you were used to seeing fluctuations in pricing. The big difference with what our generation has dealt with is that recency bias, when it's the past 20 years, the past 30 years. At that point it becomes their entire life. They've only ever known it, and it's like, "Oh, well, that's one of those things that happened before I was born. That's how the world worked when Grandma and Grandpa were here." That's a pre-internet world for all they know. Maybe the internet's why those prices don't work the way they used to. And in some ways there's actually probably some truth to that. How much easier is it to get people to believe in a status quo when it's so easy to disseminate the image of a status quo, more than it used to be?

Luke Tatum: I don't know, man.

Nicky P: I'm not disputing it. I'm just saying it's something a little different than it would've been at some point. Here's the thing: is this the same thing they were saying at the end of Rome? We don't know, 'cause we weren't necessarily there. But it is probably one of those things where, yeah, when things start getting crazy, this is the kind of stuff people say. And not on the 20- or 30-year cycles. This is the 200- and 300-year cycle stuff.

Luke Tatum: Are you expecting me to believe that you are not close personal friends with Marcus Aurelius? Come on.

Nicky P: I haven't been doing seances lately, so...

Luke Tatum: Okay, fair enough. I get you have other things going on in your life. But this is where I'm gonna go off the rails for just two seconds. The most evil people in the entire world, the worst people that exist, have such a long time horizon, man. Twenty years is nothing. It's a delay in the inevitable machinations.

Nicky P: Seventh-generation thinking, right?

Money Gurus and Local Noise [22:45]

Luke Tatum: Right, exactly. And I say this to my clients all the time. Let's zoom out again. What do you think about what happened in the '80s? What do you think about what happened in the '90s? Okay, let's zoom out again. And this is a critique I have of trendy YouTube popular investor types, the money gurus. "This is what wealthy people do. They put all of their money into high-yield savings accounts," or whatever. And it's like, okay, you don't know what you're talking about. You have no idea what you're talking about.

Nicky P: When's the last time a high-yield savings account existed?

Luke Tatum: I'm picking on a particular person that I've done reactions to on this channel, so we'll just leave it at that.

Rob Brayton: I've seen some good ones like that too. "Oh, they have all of their money in Roth IRAs and backdoor Roths."

Luke Tatum: Yeah, sure they do. Really?

Rob Brayton: Last time I checked, that's not usually what they're doing.

Luke Tatum: You tell me. Tell me who told you that. I think that's the question I would like answered.

Nicky P: Did they make all their money before they were telling people how to make money? Or is that how they made their money? I don't know.

Luke Tatum: Yeah. Not that there are any examples of somebody who got rich just giving financial advice without any base. Okay, we're picking on people. Rob, is there anywhere else you wanted to go with this one?

Rob Brayton: I think the biggest thing is, when we see this type of information, you have to think, "Is that what's happening by me?" Is it localized? Does it even matter to you? If you're not looking for a home and you have no plans to move, then why does it even matter? Don't worry about it. It's just noise. A big thing that we try to do is stay away from the noise, but we also wanna help you through it.

So much of what we can think about in a situation like this, especially if you're younger and you would like to purchase a home someday: you need to start thinking about what other assets can I own besides a home that are gonna help me be able to do that in the future? If that truly is my goal, to own a home, what can I do today that helps put me on that path? Just shoving money into a bunch of accounts isn't necessarily going to get you there. You really need to think about a strategy and about acquiring different assets that are gonna allow you to do that, and that's part of what we do. For those of you who are watching and are interested in learning what you can do differently in this crazy world of finance, we can give you some direction and actually implement some real strategies and ways to think differently about finance that put you in a position to be more successful.

Assets Beget Assets [25:55]

Luke Tatum: Yeah. Assets beget more assets, especially if you have the correct kind. The type matters, and the access and the liquidity and some of those things. It makes a big difference. It's very easy, and we've seen it happen. You and I are working on a situation right at this moment, which I will give no details on because we respect people's privacy. But it is $700,000 of quite costly things happening. So it's, how can we help this person? We may not make any money doing this, but we're gonna do our best to help. That is not small change in my book. We just feel bad whenever we encounter these situations where, if things had been done a little differently, people could be in a completely different situation. Not slightly different, but an unbelievably different trajectory this person could have been on, from a simple decision like understanding the difference between some assets.

Homes usually aren't that way, although some homes are money pits. But when it comes to homeownership, aspiring to homeownership, or wanting to move from where you are to somewhere you'd prefer to be, those are longer-term decisions. And to make longer-term decisions like that, it helps to have a framework. So we've got a five-step system we work people through. Not to get all the way into all of that, but Nick, did you have any closing thoughts? Anything else we wanna get on this episode before I wrap it?

Home Equity Is Fake Wealth [27:40]

Nicky P: I guess the big thing, if you wanna look at this positively, is you need to reframe your thinking in so many ways about what housing even is. To me, the idea of thinking of your housing as wealth, when it is so susceptible, as we've proven, to inflation... We talk about it all the time. Yeah, I've got a million dollars in quote-unquote "wealth" on paper. Well, great, but if I sell my house, can I buy less than another million-dollar house? If the market's dictating that that's the value of similar houses, then unless you're downsizing for some reason, which hardly happens anymore... it's a number. It's fake wealth. It's not something that's real. And focusing on that, as opposed to building what I would consider real assets, something you can actually make money on, not something that's just going to maybe hold and preserve its value... The best-case scenario is it might hold its value. Certainly not in perpetuity, and not without risk.

The other thing that I think is important to kind of... I'm gonna be honest, I was sitting on it for so long, it slipped my mind. But assume it was going to be very poignant.

Luke Tatum: All good. I think we covered a lot on this episode. I think this is a good look at that. So, in summary: don't make the mistake of tying up your entire net worth into an asset that you couldn't easily get out from under, and that could create its own set of problems if you were getting out from under it. If you sell your house but don't get another one, what are you doing? Wait, what? How is that making you better?

Nicky P: A lot of people are discovering right now that the liquidity of their home is not what they dreamed it to be.

Luke Tatum: And right now, if you currently own a home, unless you're using the equity for something, unless you're tapping the asset or selling, this is not something you need to panic about. So again, to end on a positive note: just don't worry about it unless it directly applies to your situation. If it does, take care. Think carefully before you make big decisions.

Nicky P: I think that's ultimately where I was gonna go. I was gonna agree with both of you. The ways in which your home is of value are so precariously decided that it's just best not to think about it. It is what it is. Worry about it when you need to worry about it, when a life change happens or you need to move or something like that. That's the only time it ever matters.

Free Toolkit [31:00]

Luke Tatum: And if you're looking for advice on that kind of situation, please reach out. We'd be happy to navigate that with you. That's a lot of what we do here. And if you'd like to get into that framework we were talking about, to think a little differently and have a better-grounded understanding of which assets are really worth considering and which ones maybe are worth holding off on, if you'd like a little guidance on those types of questions, that is what we do here at Perfect Spiral Capital. We have an amazing toolkit that you can get for just your email address. Otherwise it is completely free. Get that over at perfectspiralcapital.com/podcast. We'd love to give you free resources left and right over there. You can also follow Rob over at his separate YouTube channel, Rob Brayton PSC. He does a lot of great deep dives on specific topics as well. And I think that's gonna be it for us. Thanks so much for watching. We'll see you next week.

“Thinking of your housing as wealth, when it is so susceptible to inflation... it’s fake wealth. It’s not something that’s real.”
— Nicky P, Between The Lies, Episode 048