A record high in the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq means stock prices are up. It doesn't prove the economy is healthy. In Episode 007, Nicky P and Rob Brayton of Perfect Spiral Capital look at the September 2025 rally, Oracle's surge and a softer PPI report that boosted hopes for a Fed rate cut, and ask who benefits when rates come down and what a foundation that doesn't depend on the market looks like.
“Up does not necessarily mean good.”
This one is a short episode with just Nicky P and Rob Brayton. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were at record highs, Oracle had surged, and a softer Producer Price Index report had markets betting on a Fed rate cut, all while plenty of signs pointed to a slowdown. So what's really driving the market?
What We Covered
Why the rally feels off. Rob sees pressure from the White House to push rates down, and a softer PPI number that helps the case for a cut. The fundamentals don't look like all-time-high territory to him. With gold climbing too, he asks whether the dollar is simply worth less.
Higher prices aren't more wealth. Nicky's view from the checkout line: an all-time-high stock market mostly means everything costs more than it ever has. Meanwhile people are pushed into the market through their 401(k) and a money manager, in a market that's prone to crashes.
“All that means is that everything’s more expensive than it’s ever been.”
Up doesn't mean good. Rob says most people don't have the time to study markets, so they read up as good and down as bad. Up just means prices are up. It doesn't mean lots of new businesses are being created, and it doesn't say how many jobs depend on government spending or how far government reaches into private companies like Intel, the subject of Episode 005.
Why cut rates before fixing the deficit? Nicky asks why the government should touch rates at all before it gets the deficit under control. Rob's answer: lowering rates makes the deficit worse. Cheaper money mostly encourages people to buy things, and homes, they may not need.
“We don’t want easy money. We need to get away from easy money. We need to have solid money, sound money.”
Sound money vs. easy money. Nicky says numbers aren't the problem. We want numbers with real-world meaning. The problem is numbers distorted by bailouts and intervention, and people cheering for easy money when what we need is sound money. As long as the incentive is to win votes, he says, there will be a lie in those numbers.
Key Takeaway
If your financial foundation depends on the stock market, a jobs report or a tech company's earnings, it isn't really yours. Rob's challenge is to build a foundation that compounds consistently year after year no matter what the headlines say. And when someone tells you that you need to be in the market, ask who's telling you that and what they have to gain.
Key Moments
[0:00] Does Something Feel Manipulated?
[2:00] Higher Prices Aren't More Wealth
[3:00] Up Does Not Mean Good
[5:00] Why Cut Rates Before Fixing the Deficit?
[6:00] Easy Money and Manipulated Buying
[7:00] Sound Money vs. Easy Money
[8:00] Building a Foundation That Isn't Theirs
“Who’s telling you that? And what do they have to gain from it?”
Related Episodes
Episode 005: What Does the Government's 10% Stake in Intel Mean for Taxpayers?
Episode 008: What Does a Fed Rate Cut Mean for You? Easy Money and Who Benefits First
Episode 037: When the Bond Market Fights the Fed: The Quiet Correction Nobody's Talking About
Want the full conversation? Listen to the full episode and grab the free toolkit at PerfectSpiralCapital.com/podcast.
FAQ
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Not necessarily. A record high means stock prices are higher than before. That can reflect a weaker dollar, expectations of a rate cut or a few large companies' earnings as much as real growth. As Rob Brayton puts it in Episode 007, up does not necessarily mean good.
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The Producer Price Index measures the prices businesses receive for their goods and services, a wholesale view of inflation. A softer PPI reading suggests inflation is cooling, which raises expectations that the Fed will cut rates. That’s what happened the week this episode covers.
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Rob Brayton argues they don’t. Lowering rates makes the deficit and the current state of things worse, and cheaper money mainly encourages people to borrow and buy things they may not need. Nicky P’s question is why the government would cut rates before getting its deficit under control.
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Rob's suggestion is to build a foundation that compounds consistently every year, so headlines and earnings reports don't decide your future. At Perfect Spiral Capital, that's often properly designed whole life insurance, used as a savings tool with contractually guaranteed cash value growth. He also suggests asking anyone who says you need to be in the market what they gain from it.
Show full transcript
Between The Lies: Episode 007 Transcript
Record Highs and Rate Cut Hopes [0:00]
Nicky P: S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on the rise. Oracle surges and PPI inflation, bolsters Fed rate cut hopes despite all signs we're in a recession. Welcome to the Between The Lies Podcast, your weekly lesson on how to approach an uncertain world with positivity and balance. I'm Nicky P here with my good friend and money brain, Rob Brayton from Perfect Spiral Capital.
Rob, what am I missing?
Does Something Feel Manipulated? [0:00]
Rob Brayton: Yeah. I mean, if you, if we believe the experts, it seems like everything's going great, right? Things are on the move and so on. But it's really interesting and I think as we kind of look at some of these numbers and we kind of tie into some of the things that we've talked about before.
If you really kinda looking and taking this 10,000 foot view, so to speak, it kind of feels like maybe we're being manipulated a little bit. We've had this big pressure from the, you know, the president or the executive office to really try to push towards rates. And you know, now we see that, you know, we have this reduction in the PPI, we have, a lot of these other areas where it's like, oh, well let's get the Fed to lower these rates when, you know, maybe that may or may not be the right thing to do.
When we think about some of the fundamental, bedrock items that tend to get measured within the economy, and we see some of these things moving in different ways. It doesn't appear like we're, you know, we should be moving in an all time high situation. So it makes you wonder like, what's really the driver?
Is it that, are the dollars just that much or worth that much less? Because I mean, we see gold kind of on this tear as well. Continuing to go up, and we know that that tends to be a sta at least a stable, item of value. So yeah, it definitely feels a little bit odd, to say the least.
Nicky P: I don't know.
Higher Prices Aren't More Wealth [2:00]
Nicky P: I mean, obviously we know it's all manipulated, but for me, the thing that sticks out is. That, where are we at here? You know, we're, we have an all time high stock market in some respects, and the thing is when I look around me, it's like, well, but what does that really mean? All that means is that everything's more expensive than it's ever been.
Ben and. Last I saw things being expensive isn't good for my pocketbook. Maybe the guy selling it to me, it's worthwhile for. So, you know, I'll complain a little bit is that, you know, I'm not an expert on, the stock market, but. They want to force you into playing in the stock market. Like they want, like they want you to set your 401k in there.
They want you get a money manager and just kind of play in this thing that is inevitably, you know, prone to crashes. And frankly, like, what do I, what do I know about playing in it? So the idea of it like being higher than ever, it's like, well, to my mind it just means it's, you know. It's in like a good moment or something, you know, for, I guess the business owners, not for me.
Up Does Not Mean Good [3:00]
Rob Brayton: Yeah, I mean, it certainly does feel that way. I think for the average person, a lot of it comes down to what am I willing to educate myself about and do I really wanna take the time to understand a lot of these markets, understand all these different areas that's happening. Most people don't. I mean, let's be honest, right?
People are not looking to try to learn as much as they possibly can about a given area or a lot of areas in order to understand where they should put their money. I mean, it just, we see that so often, and I think that's why people have this complacency towards the market and when they see that it's up, they think that it's good.
When it's down, they think it's bad, and they think those two things run interchangeably as far as the current economic situation. Up does not necessarily mean good. And I think that's really what you were alluding to. It's up just means the price is up at this point. It doesn't really mean that the economy is extremely strong or that there's lots of new business creation.
You know, it makes you, it does call into account because they tend not to say this either is how many of these jobs are, you know, related to the government and all the, you know, how that level of influence that you have from. The government in the private sector is not, it's ideally not where it should be.
And then you know, we take that, tie that back a couple episodes ago, we talk about the, you know, how we're looking at, government intervention in private companies. And when we, when we see some of the stuff that's occurred recently, you know, we have the government involved with Intel. We have a lot of these other factors that we've been talking about.
We have all these things happening concurrently. That is not a good place for the economy as a whole, not a good place for the average person,
Why Cut Rates Before Fixing the Deficit? [5:00]
Nicky P: Aside from, you know, the, where the stock market's at. You know, we have, we have a revision to job numbers that, you know, it's supposed to be good. Like we have, you know, I guess everyone is excited because they're expecting the rate cut, but.
Do. Do you feel as though, I mean, I'm imagining you feel like I do, that we shouldn't have anything to do with rates when it comes to our government, but do you see it like, is now like, I guess for me it's like until you pay off the debt, you get your deficit under control. What's the, what's the point in, you know.
Lowering your interest rates?
Easy Money and Manipulated Buying [6:00]
Rob Brayton: Well, I, you know, I mean, lowering the rates only makes that deficit. That and the current state of things worse. So it doesn't really help us necessarily. Sure, it might do some things within the economy from a lending standpoint or some things along those lines, but really it doesn't help you and me and that, that I think is the part that.
You can once you become aware, and I think this is the challenging part about what we do, and so focusing so much on education about becoming a, what to be aware of within the economy, what to become aware of when you're thinking about your own personal financial situation is that once you become aware of it, you start to see where the manipulation is and you start to see like, oh, just because rates are going down, that's a good thing and we should be happy and go buy all we want.
No, I mean, generally that's there to, you know, manipulate people into buying things that they probably don't need, purchasing homes maybe they don't need. And, you know, it ends up in a, in a really poor place in most cases, especially when you have people within the government trying to manipulate these areas.
That's not what we would, what we should see if the Fed was actually doing what it's supposed to do, which we all know it isn't.
Sound Money vs. Easy Money [7:00]
Nicky P: The thing that I constantly come back to is that, you know, numbers aren't, numbers aren't bad. Like we want the numbers that we can get that have, Real world meaning the problem is that when we get numbers now that are obfuscated by, you know, government or intervention bailouts, and they don't represent actual.
Market necessity or direction of markets. So when we sit here, we see people free, like getting really excited because, oh, we think they're gonna, they're gonna make some easy money again. Well, we don't want easy money. We need to get away from easy money. We need to have solid money, sound money. But you know, as long as the incentive in there is to buy us off as voters.
You know, there's always gonna be a lie in those numbers.
Now there's, we given the information, you know, we've gone over here.
What do you think the good news is,
Rob Brayton: Is that a, feels like a little bit of a loaded question.
Building a Foundation That Isn't Theirs [8:00]
Rob Brayton: Yeah, I, it's tough to say, right? I think for the people that, you know, have money in the market, sure that's, it's good temporarily for them. You know, you, if that's the case, I don't think that. You know, people that are maybe looking to purchase a home if the rates do come down, sure, that might help you temporarily, but these are all really short term aspects to what's happening.
And I think those are semi positive areas, but I would really challenge people to think a little bit differently. And it's like, what is, if your foundation of what you've built your future on is. Influenced heavily by somebody else or what happens in the market, or a job numbers report that doesn't bode well for you.
And I think that's really the thing that we like to challenge people with is to think a little bit differently. What if, what if your main foundation wasn't impacted by these different news reports or, you know, Oracle's earnings report coming in and all of a sudden the market jumps or what have you, right?
If your firm foundation was built in a way that allowed you to have stability and then be able, and it's compounding on a consistent basis year over year, would, what would that do for you? How would you think differently? How would you maybe consider investing differently? You had that downside risk? You know, I think a lot of people just don't think about it that way, and they're always thinking and kind of being told.
Well, you need to be in the market. You need to do this. Well, who's telling you that? And what do they have to gain from it? I think that's a question that a lot of people don't ask.
Nicky P: They have a lot of my money to gain if they have inside information, I don't.
Rob Brayton: Well, maybe, but
Nicky P: Right on. Well, I don't wanna belabor things too much today. So Rob, why don't you tell people where they can check us out?
Rob Brayton: Yeah.
Nicky P: Learn more. Yeah. Well,
Outro and Free Toolkit [10:00]
Rob Brayton: Thanks again so much for joining us on this week's episode Between The Lies. You know, if you've watched this episode, you're clearly interested in money and we've got a free toolkit to be able to help you learn more about money and your money.
So, and not only that, we can help you demystify some of these things that we've been talking about here. So if you could, go on over visit, perfectspiralcapital.com/podcast and you can take a look there and find out a little bit more.
